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[IPn] Covid news



Just released study on the effectiveness of stay in place orders 
(social distancing lockdown). My advice, keep social distancing until 
a vaccine is available.  

The conclusions indicate that these orders have been effective based 
on data from California (first state to implement) and a number of 
other states that followed with similar orders in the ensuing days 
and weeks. The study is very dense and I have taken the liberty to 
summarize the conclusions below. The entire study is available as a 
PDF using this link:  

https://tinyurl.com/ipcoronavirus20200501

SIPO = Stay In Place Order

Summarized Conclusions

We estimate that in the near-month following the order, the state 
SIPO reduced the number of COVID-19 cases by 125.5 to 219.7 per 
100,000 population. In addition, our estimates suggest that the 
California SIPO averted up to 1,661 COVID-19-related deaths 
(approximate Calif deaths during study period ~ 1900). Thus, our 
estimates  suggest a mortality rate of about one to three percent at 
the margin of averted cases. We note that these benefits represent 
the effects of having a SIPO in place as well as the effects of doing 
so early in the outbreak cycle.  

Unemployment insurance claims in California rose by 2.83 million in 
the four weeks during which we studied mortality reductions (U.S. 
Department of Labor 2020). If we net out the average increase in the 
weekly jobless claim rate for COVID-19 cases (column 1 of Table 1) as 
a proxy for how weekly job loss would have evolved in California, 
estimates of job loss are nearly 75 percent smaller. Back-of-the- 
envelope calculations suggest, at the lower bound, over 400 jobs were 
lost per COVID-19 death averted.  

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