[IPn] Covid news
Just released study on the effectiveness of stay in place orders
(social distancing lockdown). My advice, keep social distancing until
a vaccine is available.
The conclusions indicate that these orders have been effective based
on data from California (first state to implement) and a number of
other states that followed with similar orders in the ensuing days
and weeks. The study is very dense and I have taken the liberty to
summarize the conclusions below. The entire study is available as a
PDF using this link:
SIPO = Stay In Place Order
We estimate that in the near-month following the order, the state
SIPO reduced the number of COVID-19 cases by 125.5 to 219.7 per
100,000 population. In addition, our estimates suggest that the
California SIPO averted up to 1,661 COVID-19-related deaths
(approximate Calif deaths during study period ~ 1900). Thus, our
estimates suggest a mortality rate of about one to three percent at
the margin of averted cases. We note that these benefits represent
the effects of having a SIPO in place as well as the effects of doing
so early in the outbreak cycle.
Unemployment insurance claims in California rose by 2.83 million in
the four weeks during which we studied mortality reductions (U.S.
Department of Labor 2020). If we net out the average increase in the
weekly jobless claim rate for COVID-19 cases (column 1 of Table 1) as
a proxy for how weekly job loss would have evolved in California,
estimates of job loss are nearly 75 percent smaller. Back-of-the-
envelope calculations suggest, at the lower bound, over 400 jobs were
lost per COVID-19 death averted.
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