Re: [IP] Deltec can cheaply supply Mac users.
On Mar 31, 2005, at 10:35 AM, "Felix Kasza" <email @ redacted> wrote:
> Regarding software for Macs -- assuming the distribution of Mac users
> among pumpers is similar to that in the general computer-using
> population, let's do a back-of-the-envelope calculation:
>
> ~200,000 pumpers (guesstimate -- Minimed, I am told, has ~140,000)
> ~50% computer users --> 100,000
> ~10% of computer users use Macs --> 10,000.
>
> Of those 10,000, ~7,000 would use Minimed pumps (largest share).
Let's assume your numbers (I certainly have no reason at all to doubt
them, and they are scalable anyway). Wouldn't it benefit, say, Deltec,
to be able to "steal" those ~7000 Mac Pumpers from MM, at the moment of
their next upgrade? Doesn't ~7000 new customers seem rather large, in
comparison to their current (assumed) market share, which is a number
less 60000, according to the quoted data. That is, to bias against my
argument here, assume that no one uses Animas or Diesetronic or any
pumps other than MM and Deltec. Thus, MM has 140000 customers, Deltec
has 60000. Going from 60000 to 67000 customers means an absolute
increase of 11 2/3 % in customer base, or a shift from 30% to 33.5%
market share.
Don't those number look good (on the assumption that you are willing to
be in this market at all)? Now, if Mac Pumpers don't care about these
issues, or have other priorities in choosing a pump, then these numbers
will be smaller. If, on the other hand, we have inflated the current
customer base/market share that deltec enjoys, then these percentages
could increase, making it an even more attractive possibility.
> If pump/charting software had to be profitable, I doubt we would have
> software for Windows, much less Macs. In this regard it's a Good Thing
> that some form of computer support is de rigueur today. But if I were a
> company having to decide whether to spend yet more money to supply
> 7,000
> users with software for their choice of machine, in an age when Dell
> will happily sell you a $500 box that is already overkill for the
> application -- my answer would be "no".
Of course, such a company assumes either that those 7000 users are
insignificant relative to their share of the market (but see above)
rather than in the world as a whole, or that they are willing to buy a
$500 box from Dell, and I, for one, wouldn't. This ties in with the
point I made originally. It also connects to something that has been
brought up by some respondents to my post: The cost of
developing/supporting Mac Software. In my post, I argued that this is
irrelevant (whether large or small): get the data into a PalmOs device,
and let Palm worry about getting it into the Mac. It also addresses the
market share issue: We are not simply talking about Mac Pumpers here,
but about PalmOs users, which anyone with a computer (100,000 according
to the estimates above) can be for significantly cheaper than that $500
box. Yes, PC users already have a PC so don't need the box, and some
might see the PDA as an extra expense, but there are certainly some
(many?) of these PC wielding Pumpers who also have PDAs for purposes
other than connecting to a pump, and perhaps there are even more such
PC + PDA using Pumpers in absolute numbers than the ~10000 Mac Pumpers
mentioned above, so the potential market share growth may even be
underestimated in my discussion above.
Deltec has already put resources into developing Palm applications, as
I stated. The program that I am talking about is a similar, yet
functionally less complex one. Seen in the right light, I believe,
Deltec would be foolish not to put the minimal resources needed into
such a PalmOs program, given potential rewards.
Ed
.
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