# Re: [IP] Odds

> I figured the odds of having 3 siblings who all have type 1 is 1 in
> 200,000 based on the odds of one child being 1/500 multiplied by
> sibling odds 1/20 (sibling 2) times 1/20 (sibling 3).

hmmm..... the odds of a child contracting IDDM are 3-6% if there is a
first degree relative with it and < 1% if not. The other kids each
have the 3-6% probablility once the first one is dx'd. If you flip a
coin 1000 time and it comes up heads each time, the next time the
odds are still 50/50. Same with the kids (assuming they are not
twins), the odds are still in the 3-6% range depending on a few

I'll bet our very own:

Jim Handsfield, PhD, MPH
Statistician
Division of Laboratory Systems
Public Health Practice Program Office
Centers for Disease Control & Prevention
email @ redacted / (770)488-8106

can give us a much better answer than I can.

Michael
email @ redacted
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